FOMC Meeting Tracker Excel: Rate-Cut Probability Dashboard (2026)

FOMC Meeting Tracker Excel is the workbook investors keep open in the week before a Federal Reserve decision. With the next FOMC meeting set for June 17-18, 2026, the market is once again debating whether the committee delivers an insurance cut, leans on a dovish dot plot, or holds rates and lets the data decide. This guide walks through a six-sheet MarketXLS-powered tracker that maps every plausible outcome to the indices, sectors, treasuries, and macro tickers that actually move on Fed days. It is built for the financial advisor or self-directed investor who wants one Excel tab instead of seven Bloomberg windows.

What the tracker delivers at a glance

A good FOMC tracker should answer three questions in under thirty seconds:

Question	Where the tracker answers it
Where is the tape sitting going INTO the meeting?	Main Dashboard - 5 indices + 11 sector ETFs with RSI, SMAs, distance from 52-week high
What happens in each rate-decision scenario?	Rate-Cut Scenarios - six policy outcomes with historical 30-day analog moves
Which individual names benefit most from a dovish pivot?	Watchlist - 18 rate-beneficiary tickers grouped by catalyst
Is the bond market confirming the equity setup?	Yield Curve & Macro - treasuries, credit, gold, oil, dollar
Which sectors are already pricing in cuts?	Sector Heatmap - color-coded by rate-sensitivity tier

Every cell pulls live data via MarketXLS formulas like =QM_Last("SPY"), =RSI("XLU"), and =SimpleMovingAverage("TLT",50). Open the workbook on Wednesday morning, refresh, and the tape state is current.

Download the templates:

- Pre-filled with end-of-day values for May 28, 2026
- Live-updating formulas

Why a FOMC Meeting Tracker Excel matters right now

The June 17-18 meeting is not just another decision point. It is the first meeting of the summer where the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) is published, which means the dot plot is back on the table. Dot-plot meetings move markets more than rate-only meetings: the shift in the median projected rate for the end of 2026 and the long-run neutral rate is often the bigger story than the rate move itself.

Fed funds futures heading into the meeting have priced a range of outcomes. The market is leaning toward an insurance cut, but a measurable probability is still assigned to a hawkish hold. A FOMC tracker Excel built on MarketXLS lets you stage your positioning against each branch of the decision tree, then watch each ticker respond in real time once the statement crosses the wire at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday and Powell takes the podium at 2:30 PM ET.

The educational use case is clear: instead of memorizing how every sector ETF historically reacts to a 25-basis-point cut, you have a single spreadsheet that surfaces the relationships in tiered, color-coded form. Nothing in the tracker is a forecast or a recommendation. It is a positioning checklist driven by data you control.

The six sheets inside the FOMC Meeting Tracker Excel

Sheet 1 - How To Use

A plain-language tutorial. It explains what each sheet does, defines the rate-sensitivity tiers, and points to MarketXLS function documentation. Importantly, it sets the disclaimer up front: this is educational positioning analysis, not investment advice.

Sheet 2 - Main Dashboard

The Main Dashboard pulls live prices, RSI, 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, distance from 52-week high, beta, and dividend yield for:

Five major indices (SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, VIX)
All eleven sector SPDR ETFs (XLF, XLU, XLRE, XLK, XLY, XLP, XLV, XLI, XLE, XLB, XLC)

The yellow input cells in row 3 let you set the FOMC date, expected cut size in basis points, and a one-word dot-plot tone (Hawkish, Neutral, or Dovish). Those values flow through the scenario logic on later sheets.

Sample MarketXLS formulas powering this sheet:

=QM_Last("SPY")                       Current price of SPY
=RSI("XLU")                           14-day RSI for Utilities sector
=SimpleMovingAverage("XLRE",50)       50-day SMA for Real Estate sector
=SimpleMovingAverage("IWM",200)       200-day SMA for Russell 2000
=FiftyTwoWeekHigh("QQQ")              52-week high for Nasdaq 100
=Beta("XLF")                          Beta of Financials sector vs market
=DividendYield("XLU")*100             Annual dividend yield as percentage

Sheet 3 - Rate-Cut Scenarios

This is the analytical heart of the workbook. Six scenarios are laid out with historical 30-day analog moves:

Scenario	Cut	Dot Plot	SPY 30d	IWM 30d	TLT 30d	DXY 30d	Gold 30d	VIX
Hawkish Hold	0	Hawkish	-2.5%	-3.8%	-3.2%	+1.8%	-2.4%	+3.0
Hold + Dovish Dots	0	Dovish	+1.5%	+2.4%	+2.8%	-1.4%	+1.6%	-1.5
Insurance Cut	25	Neutral	+2.4%	+3.6%	+2.4%	-1.2%	+2.2%	-2.0
Insurance + Dovish	25	Dovish	+3.6%	+5.2%	+3.8%	-1.8%	+3.4%	-2.8
Recession Cut	50	Dovish	+1.8%	+4.2%	+4.6%	-2.4%	+4.8%	-1.0
Emergency Cut	75	Dovish	-1.2%	+2.4%	+6.2%	-3.2%	+6.4%	+4.0

The figures are educational analogs computed from past FOMC reactions. The pattern that stands out: small-caps and long-duration treasuries are the most leveraged plays to a dovish surprise, while a hawkish surprise hits IWM harder than SPY because of small-cap floating-rate debt.

Below the table is a position-sizing helper. Five tilt options are pre-built: Stay-Defensive, Cyclical Rotation, Duration Long, Real Asset Hedge, and Volatility Hedge. Each maps to a vehicle list (such as XLP plus XLV plus short-duration for defensive) and a "when to use" trigger.

Sheet 4 - Sector Heatmap

The Sector Heatmap ranks all eleven sector SPDR ETFs by rate-cut sensitivity. The Tier column is color coded:

Green - HIGH_CUT_BENEFIT (XLRE, XLU, XLY)
Amber - DEFENSIVE (XLP, XLV)
Light blue - MIXED (XLF, which has cross-currents from yield curve)
Grey - MODERATE (XLK, XLI, XLE, XLB, XLC)

Each row shows current price, 5-day return, 1-month return, year-to-date return, RSI, and distance from the 52-week high. The Signal column auto-classifies each name as OVERBOUGHT, OVERSOLD, STRONG, WEAK, or NEUTRAL using the rules visible in the formula.

The template version uses:

=QM_Last("XLU")                           Current sector ETF price
=RSI("XLU")                               14-day RSI
=FiftyTwoWeekHigh("XLU")                  52-week high
=IndexOnDate("XLU",WORKDAY(TODAY(),-5))   Closing price 5 trading days ago

The IndexOnDate function lets the sheet compute 5-day, one-month, and year-to-date returns without storing static prices. If you want a snapshot for a memo, just copy the cell values.

Sheet 5 - Rate-Beneficiary Watchlist

Eighteen names grouped into five rate-catalyst buckets:

Regional Banks (KRE, RF, KEY, FITB) - benefit from a steeper curve. Net interest margins re-expand when short rates fall and the long end stays anchored.
Homebuilders (LEN, DHI, PHM, NVR) - benefit from mortgage rate relief. The 30-year mortgage rate tracks the 10-year treasury plus a spread, and lower mortgage rates pull buyers off the sidelines.
REITs (PLD, O, AMT, AVB) - benefit from duration tailwinds and improving cap-rate math.
Utilities (NEE, DUK, SO, AEP) - bond-proxy income. Yields look more attractive on a relative basis when the front end drops.
Small Caps (IWM, IJR) - relief on floating-rate debt costs, which is a larger share of small-cap balance sheets than the S&P 500.

Each row shows price, P/E, dividend yield, beta, RSI, distance from 52-week high, and market cap. The Cut-Beneficiary Score column applies a weighted rule:

+20 if dividend yield > 3% (or +10 if > 2%)
+20 if beta > 1.2 (or +10 if > 0.9)
+15 if RSI < 60 (room to run)
+15 if within 10% of 52-week high (trend intact)
+15 if P/E < 20 (value cushion)

The intent is to surface names that combine cycle leverage (beta or yield) with a non-overbought setup. The scoring weights live in formulas - edit them in the cell to tune the screener to your own style.

Sheet 6 - Yield Curve & Macro Dashboard

Ten macro tickers tell the story of how the bond market is positioning for the meeting:

SHY (1-3Y), IEI (3-7Y), IEF (7-10Y), TLT (20+Y) - the treasury duration ladder
TIP - TIPS bond ETF, captures inflation breakevens
HYG (high yield), LQD (investment grade) - credit risk gauges
GLD - gold, the real-yield play
USO - oil, sensitive to dollar moves
UUP - dollar index ETF

Each row shows price, 5-day, 1-month, and year-to-date returns, dividend yield, RSI, and distance from 52-week high. A "Why It Matters Pre-FOMC" column documents the macro logic, which is the most overlooked educational layer on most tracker sheets.

The narrative box at the bottom is the cheat sheet:

TLT rallying without IEF following = the long end is pricing recession.
HYG outperforming LQD = credit risk appetite returning (dovish-friendly tape).
GLD up + UUP down = real yields falling, usually a dovish-Fed setup.
TIP vs IEF divergence shows whether the market is pricing real-rate cuts or inflation revisions.

Building this in MarketXLS - the formulas behind the dashboard

The reason the FOMC Meeting Tracker Excel works as a single workbook rather than a manual screen-scrape exercise is the breadth of the MarketXLS function library. A complete walkthrough of the core functions:

Price and trend functions

=QM_Last("SPY") returns the pending last price of any symbol that QuoteMedia covers. It refreshes every time the workbook recalculates. Pair it with =SimpleMovingAverage("SPY",50) and =SimpleMovingAverage("SPY",200) for a trend filter that drives a simple "above 200-day SMA" yes/no flag with =IF(QM_Last("SPY")>SimpleMovingAverage("SPY",200),"YES","NO").

For the 52-week range, =FiftyTwoWeekHigh("SPY") and =FiftyTwoWeekLow("SPY") are the workhorses. Distance from the 52-week high is one of the most useful pre-FOMC indicators - tape near the highs reacts differently than tape that has just sold off.

Momentum and risk

=RSI("XLU") returns the 14-day Relative Strength Index. Sectors with RSI above 70 are overbought heading into the meeting, which often means they have already priced in the dovish outcome. RSI below 30 means an oversold setup where a hawkish surprise could trigger a relief rally on a contrarian basis.

=Beta("KRE") is the market sensitivity gauge. Regional banks have historically run beta near 1.3, which means a 1% SPY move on the FOMC headline translates roughly to a 1.3% KRE move before any sector-specific impact.

Income and quality

=DividendYield("O") returns the annual dividend yield as a decimal (multiply by 100 to display as a percentage). On the FOMC tracker it matters for bond-proxy names where yield is the entire investment thesis.

=PERatio("LEN") returns the trailing P/E ratio. Homebuilders trade at single-digit multiples for structural reasons (cyclical earnings) but a comparison versus historical median is the value check.

=MarketCapitalization("NEE") returns the market cap in USD. Divide by 1,000,000,000 inside the cell to display in billions.

Sector and identity

=Sector("AAPL") returns the GICS sector name as text, which is useful when you swap tickers into the watchlist - the sector label updates automatically without manual maintenance.

Historical reference for return windows

=IndexOnDate("XLU",WORKDAY(TODAY(),-5)) returns the closing price on the trading day five days back. Plug it into the standard return formula =(QM_Last("XLU")/IndexOnDate("XLU",WORKDAY(TODAY(),-5))-1)*100 and you have a live 5-day return on every row. The same construction with EDATE(TODAY(),-1) gives a 1-month return; DATE(YEAR(TODAY()),1,1) gives YTD.

These nine functions are all that is needed to power the entire six-sheet tracker. Every formula in the template version of the workbook is verified against the live MarketXLS function catalog before publication.

Reading the dot plot on June 18

The dot plot is the chart most market participants flip to before reading a single line of the FOMC statement. Each blue dot represents one FOMC participant's expectation for the federal funds rate at the end of each future year, plus the long-run neutral rate. The median dot is what the market reacts to.

Three things to track on Wednesday afternoon:

End-2026 median - how many cuts the committee collectively projects for the rest of this year. A downward revision is dovish; an upward revision is hawkish.
End-2027 median - the path of further cuts. A flat or rising end-2027 dot signals the committee thinks the easing cycle is short.
Long-run neutral rate - the rate the committee thinks is neither stimulative nor restrictive in equilibrium. A revision higher signals the committee thinks rates need to stay elevated for structural reasons.

The dispersion of dots also matters. A tight cluster signals committee consensus. A wide spread signals genuine disagreement, which often translates to higher implied volatility in rates and equities until the next meeting.

How to use the FOMC Meeting Tracker Excel before and after the meeting

A practical week-of workflow:

Monday before the meeting - Open the Main Dashboard. Scan the RSI column. Sectors with RSI above 65 have already done some of the work; sectors with RSI below 50 are where a dovish surprise has the most room to run. Note distance from 52-week highs on the rate-sensitive groups (XLU, XLRE, XLY).

Tuesday - Move to the Sector Heatmap. The Signal column auto-classifies each name; copy the table into your weekly memo. Pull up the Yield Curve & Macro sheet and compare the year-to-date returns on TLT versus SHY. If long duration is already up materially, the bond market is already positioned for cuts and the marginal surprise needs to be larger than market expectation to move tape.

Wednesday 1:30 PM ET - Refresh the workbook. Make sure all formulas pull. Have your Rate-Cut Scenarios sheet open in a separate window.

Wednesday 2:00 PM ET - The statement drops. Read the rate decision and the dot plot. Cross-reference to the scenario row that best matches.

Wednesday 2:30 PM ET - Powell's press conference. Refresh the dashboard every 5-10 minutes. Watch the VIX and IWM columns - they typically tell the story first.

Thursday morning - Open the Watchlist. Names that align with the scenario but have not moved yet are educationally interesting to research further. Names that have moved sharply against the scenario are educationally interesting in the other direction.

This is not a trading recipe. It is a positioning checklist that helps you turn live data into structured observation.

Frequently asked questions

What is the FOMC Meeting Tracker Excel and how does it work?

The FOMC Meeting Tracker Excel is a six-sheet MarketXLS-powered workbook that maps every plausible Federal Reserve rate decision to its likely market impact across indices, sectors, treasuries, and macro tickers. It uses live MarketXLS formulas (such as QM_Last, RSI, SimpleMovingAverage, Beta, and DividendYield) to refresh prices and indicators every time you recalculate the sheet. Yellow input cells let you set the expected cut size and dot-plot tone, and the scenario analysis tab maps those inputs to historical 30-day analog moves.

Which sectors benefit most from a dovish FOMC outcome?

Historically, long-duration cash-flow sectors react most positively to dovish FOMC surprises. The HIGH_CUT_BENEFIT tier in the tracker includes Real Estate (XLRE), Utilities (XLU), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY). REITs benefit from improving cap-rate math, utilities benefit from bond-proxy yield comparisons, and consumer discretionary benefits from improved household borrowing capacity. Small caps (IWM, IJR) and regional banks (KRE) often outperform during steepening curve regimes that follow dovish pivots, though they carry higher cyclical risk.

How is the rate-cut scenario analysis calculated?

The scenario table on the Rate-Cut Scenarios sheet uses educational 30-day analog moves derived from past FOMC reactions. Six scenarios are laid out: Hawkish Hold, Hold with Dovish Dots, Insurance Cut, Insurance Cut with Dovish Dots, Recession Cut (50 bps), and Emergency Cut (75 bps). For each, the table shows historical 30-day moves in SPY, IWM, TLT, DXY, gold, and the VIX. These are reference points, not forecasts - actual reactions to any single meeting depend on positioning, surprise magnitude, and Powell's tone during the press conference.

Can the FOMC tracker workbook pull live Fed funds futures probabilities?

The MarketXLS function library does not provide a direct Fed funds futures probability series, which is published by CME Group through the FedWatch tool. The tracker is built to work alongside FedWatch: the yellow input cells let you enter the implied cut probability you read from CME, and the scenario sheet maps that input to position-sizing tilts. For real-time futures contract pricing, MarketXLS does support futures symbols via the standard pricing functions.

What MarketXLS formulas are required to build the tracker?

The complete formula set for the tracker is small: QM_Last (current price), RSI (14-day RSI), SimpleMovingAverage (50-day and 200-day SMA), FiftyTwoWeekHigh and FiftyTwoWeekLow (52-week range), Beta (market sensitivity), DividendYield (income), PERatio (valuation), MarketCapitalization (size), Sector (GICS classification), and IndexOnDate (historical close on a specific date for return windows). Every formula in the template version is verified against the live MarketXLS function catalog before publication. The full reference is available at https://marketxls.com/excel-app/add-in/help.

When is the June 2026 FOMC meeting and what should I prepare?

The June 2026 FOMC meeting is scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, June 17-18, 2026. The statement is released Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET, the Summary of Economic Projections (including the dot plot) is released at the same time, and Chair Powell holds his press conference at 2:30 PM ET. The next meeting after that is July 29-30, 2026. The recommended preparation steps using this tracker are walked through in the workflow section above: scan the dashboard early in the week, study the scenario table, position observations to align with your scenario view, and refresh during the announcement.

The bottom line

A FOMC Meeting Tracker Excel built on MarketXLS turns a stressful Fed week into a structured exercise. Six sheets cover the full decision tree: a live market dashboard, six rate-cut scenarios, a color-coded sector heatmap, a rate-beneficiary watchlist, and a yield-curve macro overlay. Every cell pulls live data through verified MarketXLS functions, and every input cell is yours to tune.

The deeper value is the educational structure. Looking up RSI on XLU or distance from the 52-week high on TLT is easy in isolation. Connecting those data points to the rate-cut scenarios that drive them, and to the watchlist names that respond to each scenario, is what transforms a spreadsheet into an analytical tool.

Download both the static reference workbook and the live formula version below. Plug your watchlist into the Watchlist sheet, set your scenario in the yellow input cells, and the rest of the dashboard will follow.