MarketXLS

Real Potential Gross Domestic Product

29.4T for Q4 2036

Real Potential Gross Domestic Product came in at 29.4T for Q4 2036, up 0.44% from 29.3T the prior quarter and 1.76% above its level of 28.9T one year ago. The series has averaged 12.6T since 1949, reaching a record high of 29.4T in October 2036 and a record low of 2.245T in January 1949.

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), St. Louis Fed

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Cite this data: "Real Potential Gross Domestic Product," MarketXLS. Data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), St. Louis Fed. marketxls.com/indicators/potential-gdp

Historical Data

Observation dateValue
October 1, 203629.4T
July 1, 203629.3T
April 1, 203629.2T
January 1, 203629.1T
October 1, 203528.9T
July 1, 203528.8T
April 1, 203528.7T
January 1, 203528.6T
October 1, 203428.4T
July 1, 203428.3T
April 1, 203428.2T
January 1, 203428.1T
October 1, 203327.9T
July 1, 203327.8T
April 1, 203327.7T
January 1, 203327.5T
October 1, 203227.4T
July 1, 203227.3T
April 1, 203227.2T
January 1, 203227T
October 1, 203126.9T
July 1, 203126.8T
April 1, 203126.7T
January 1, 203126.5T
October 1, 203026.4T
July 1, 203026.3T
April 1, 203026.1T
January 1, 203026T
October 1, 202925.9T
July 1, 202925.8T
April 1, 202925.6T
January 1, 202925.5T
October 1, 202825.4T
July 1, 202825.2T
April 1, 202825.1T
January 1, 202825T
October 1, 202724.9T
July 1, 202724.7T
April 1, 202724.6T
January 1, 202724.5T
October 1, 202624.3T
July 1, 202624.2T
April 1, 202624.1T
January 1, 202623.9T
October 1, 202523.8T
July 1, 202523.7T
April 1, 202523.5T
January 1, 202523.4T
October 1, 202423.3T
July 1, 202423.1T
April 1, 202423T
January 1, 202422.8T
October 1, 202322.7T
July 1, 202322.5T
April 1, 202322.4T
January 1, 202322.2T
October 1, 202222.1T
July 1, 202221.9T
April 1, 202221.8T
January 1, 202221.7T
October 1, 202121.6T
July 1, 202121.4T
April 1, 202121.3T
January 1, 202121.2T
October 1, 202021.1T
July 1, 202021T
April 1, 202020.9T
January 1, 202020.8T
October 1, 201920.7T
July 1, 201920.6T
April 1, 201920.5T
January 1, 201920.4T
October 1, 201820.3T
July 1, 201820.2T
April 1, 201820.1T
January 1, 201820T
October 1, 201719.9T
July 1, 201719.8T
April 1, 201719.7T
January 1, 201719.6T
October 1, 201619.5T
July 1, 201619.4T
April 1, 201619.3T
January 1, 201619.2T
October 1, 201519.1T
July 1, 201519T
April 1, 201518.9T
January 1, 201518.8T
October 1, 201418.7T
July 1, 201418.6T
April 1, 201418.5T
January 1, 201418.4T
October 1, 201318.4T
July 1, 201318.3T
April 1, 201318.2T
January 1, 201318.1T
October 1, 201218T
July 1, 201218T
April 1, 201217.9T
January 1, 201217.8T
October 1, 201117.7T
July 1, 201117.7T
April 1, 201117.6T
January 1, 201117.5T
October 1, 201017.5T
July 1, 201017.4T
April 1, 201017.3T
January 1, 201017.3T
October 1, 200917.2T
July 1, 200917.2T
April 1, 200917.1T
January 1, 200917.1T
October 1, 200817T
July 1, 200816.9T
April 1, 200816.9T
January 1, 200816.8T
October 1, 200716.7T
July 1, 200716.6T
April 1, 200716.5T
January 1, 200716.4T
October 1, 200616.4T
July 1, 200616.3T
April 1, 200616.2T
January 1, 200616.1T
October 1, 200516T
July 1, 200515.9T
April 1, 200515.8T
January 1, 200515.7T
October 1, 200415.6T
July 1, 200415.5T
April 1, 200415.4T
January 1, 200415.3T
October 1, 200315.2T
July 1, 200315.1T
April 1, 200315T
January 1, 200314.9T
October 1, 200214.9T
July 1, 200214.8T
April 1, 200214.7T
January 1, 200214.6T
October 1, 200114.5T
July 1, 200114.4T
April 1, 200114.3T
January 1, 200114.2T
October 1, 200014.1T
July 1, 200013.9T
April 1, 200013.8T
January 1, 200013.6T
October 1, 199913.5T
July 1, 199913.4T
April 1, 199913.2T
January 1, 199913.1T
October 1, 199812.9T
July 1, 199812.8T
April 1, 199812.7T
January 1, 199812.5T
October 1, 199712.4T
July 1, 199712.3T
April 1, 199712.2T
January 1, 199712.1T
October 1, 199612T
July 1, 199611.8T
April 1, 199611.8T
January 1, 199611.7T
October 1, 199511.6T
July 1, 199511.5T
April 1, 199511.4T
January 1, 199511.3T
October 1, 199411.2T
July 1, 199411.2T
April 1, 199411.1T
January 1, 199411T
October 1, 199310.9T
July 1, 199310.8T
April 1, 199310.8T
January 1, 199310.7T
October 1, 199210.6T
July 1, 199210.6T
April 1, 199210.5T
January 1, 199210.4T
October 1, 199110.3T
July 1, 199110.3T
April 1, 199110.2T
January 1, 199110.2T
October 1, 199010.1T
July 1, 199010T
April 1, 19909.954T
January 1, 19909.885T
October 1, 19899.817T
July 1, 19899.748T
April 1, 19899.68T
January 1, 19899.611T
October 1, 19889.542T
July 1, 19889.472T
April 1, 19889.403T
January 1, 19889.333T
October 1, 19879.263T
July 1, 19879.192T
April 1, 19879.12T
January 1, 19879.049T
October 1, 19868.976T
July 1, 19868.903T
April 1, 19868.831T
January 1, 19868.758T
October 1, 19858.685T
July 1, 19858.612T
April 1, 19858.539T
January 1, 19858.466T
October 1, 19848.394T
July 1, 19848.322T
April 1, 19848.252T
January 1, 19848.184T
October 1, 19838.118T
July 1, 19838.055T
April 1, 19837.995T
January 1, 19837.936T
October 1, 19827.878T
July 1, 19827.82T
April 1, 19827.764T
January 1, 19827.708T
October 1, 19817.654T
July 1, 19817.603T
April 1, 19817.554T
January 1, 19817.508T
October 1, 19807.465T
July 1, 19807.427T
April 1, 19807.39T
January 1, 19807.347T
October 1, 19797.298T
July 1, 19797.244T
April 1, 19797.185T
January 1, 19797.123T
October 1, 19787.059T
July 1, 19786.996T
April 1, 19786.935T
January 1, 19786.876T
October 1, 19776.817T
July 1, 19776.76T
April 1, 19776.705T
January 1, 19776.65T
October 1, 19766.596T
July 1, 19766.545T
April 1, 19766.494T
January 1, 19766.444T
October 1, 19756.395T
July 1, 19756.346T
April 1, 19756.297T
January 1, 19756.246T
October 1, 19746.195T
July 1, 19746.143T
April 1, 19746.09T
January 1, 19746.037T
October 1, 19735.984T
July 1, 19735.932T
April 1, 19735.881T
January 1, 19735.831T
October 1, 19725.782T
July 1, 19725.735T
April 1, 19725.689T
January 1, 19725.643T
October 1, 19715.599T
July 1, 19715.554T
April 1, 19715.51T
January 1, 19715.467T
October 1, 19705.423T
July 1, 19705.379T
April 1, 19705.334T
January 1, 19705.288T
October 1, 19695.24T
July 1, 19695.191T
April 1, 19695.14T
January 1, 19695.088T
October 1, 19685.034T
July 1, 19684.978T
April 1, 19684.924T
January 1, 19684.87T
October 1, 19674.816T
July 1, 19674.763T
April 1, 19674.71T
January 1, 19674.658T
October 1, 19664.607T
July 1, 19664.558T
April 1, 19664.508T
January 1, 19664.46T
October 1, 19654.412T
July 1, 19654.365T
April 1, 19654.318T
January 1, 19654.272T
October 1, 19644.226T
July 1, 19644.181T
April 1, 19644.136T
January 1, 19644.091T
October 1, 19634.048T
July 1, 19634.005T
April 1, 19633.962T
January 1, 19633.92T
October 1, 19623.878T
July 1, 19623.838T
April 1, 19623.799T
January 1, 19623.761T
October 1, 19613.726T
July 1, 19613.691T
April 1, 19613.657T
January 1, 19613.623T
October 1, 19603.588T
July 1, 19603.554T
April 1, 19603.518T
January 1, 19603.483T
October 1, 19593.446T
July 1, 19593.411T
April 1, 19593.377T
January 1, 19593.344T
October 1, 19583.312T
July 1, 19583.281T
April 1, 19583.252T
January 1, 19583.223T
October 1, 19573.195T
July 1, 19573.168T
April 1, 19573.141T
January 1, 19573.116T
October 1, 19563.092T
July 1, 19563.07T
April 1, 19563.049T
January 1, 19563.029T
October 1, 19553.009T
July 1, 19552.989T
April 1, 19552.97T
January 1, 19552.95T
October 1, 19542.932T
July 1, 19542.913T
April 1, 19542.895T
January 1, 19542.875T
October 1, 19532.854T
July 1, 19532.832T
April 1, 19532.806T
January 1, 19532.778T
October 1, 19522.748T
July 1, 19522.714T
April 1, 19522.679T
January 1, 19522.641T
October 1, 19512.604T
July 1, 19512.568T
April 1, 19512.534T
January 1, 19512.502T
October 1, 19502.47T
July 1, 19502.438T
April 1, 19502.406T
January 1, 19502.373T
October 1, 19492.34T
July 1, 19492.309T
April 1, 19492.276T
January 1, 19492.245T

About Real Potential Gross Domestic Product

What it measures

Real Potential GDP (FRED series GDPPOT) is the Congressional Budget Office's estimate of the maximum sustainable output the US economy could produce with full use of labor and capital, without generating inflation pressure. It is a modeled quarterly series expressed in chained dollars, including CBO projections extending years into the future.

Why it matters

Comparing actual GDP to potential yields the output gap, a core input to assessments of economic slack and monetary policy stance. When actual output runs above potential, inflation pressure tends to build; when it runs below, unemployment is typically elevated. Analysts use the series to judge how much room the economy has to grow.

How to read it

Potential GDP moves smoothly because it reflects estimated trend productivity and labor force growth, not the business cycle. Read it alongside actual real GDP: a widening shortfall implies slack, while output exceeding potential implies an overheating economy. Remember it is a model-based estimate that CBO revises as methodology and data change, so historical gaps can be restated.

Get Real Potential Gross Domestic Product in Excel

Pull Real Potential Gross Domestic Product directly into your spreadsheet with a single MarketXLS formula - always current, no copy-pasting:

=RealPotentialGDP()

View the Real Potential Gross Domestic Product formula documentation or browse all 100+ Economic Data functions.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current Real Potential Gross Domestic Product?

Real Potential Gross Domestic Product is 29.4T as of October 2036.

What is the all-time high and low of Real Potential Gross Domestic Product?

The highest value on record is 29.4T (October 2036) and the lowest is 2.245T (January 1949).

How often is Real Potential Gross Domestic Product updated?

Real Potential Gross Domestic Product is published on a quarterly basis, sourced from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).

How do I get Real Potential Gross Domestic Product in Excel?

Use the MarketXLS Excel formula =RealPotentialGDP() to pull Real Potential Gross Domestic Product directly into any cell, with historical values available for analysis.

Basic info
Real potential GDP is the estimate of the output the economy would produce with a high rate of use of its capital and labor resources.
RegionUnited States
FrequencyQuarterly
Last updatedFebruary 27, 2026
Seasonal adjustmentNot Seasonally Adjusted
UnitBillions of Chained 2017 Dollars

Stats
Last Value29.4T
Latest PeriodQ4 2036
Last UpdatedFebruary 27 2026, 03:05
Value Previous Quarter29.3T
Change From Previous Quarter0.44%
Value 1 Year Ago28.9T
Change From Year Ago1.76%
Average Growth Rate2.98%/yr
Record High (Oct 2036)29.4T
Record Low (Jan 1949)2.245T
Long-Term Average12.6T
FrequencyQuarterly
AdjustmentNot Seasonally Adjusted
UnitBillions of Chained 2017 Dollars

Annual Averages
203629.3T
203528.7T
203428.2T
203327.7T
203227.2T
203126.7T
203026.2T
202925.7T
202825.2T
202724.7T
202624.1T
202523.6T

Related Indicators
Real Gross Domestic Product
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Real Gross Private Domestic Investment
Real Government Spending
Real Net Exports of Goods and Services
Real Exports of Goods and Services
Real imports of goods and services
Federal Receipts
Federal Net Outlays
Federal Surplus or Deficit
US Federal Debt (Total Public Debt)
Real Private Nonresidential Fixed Investment
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