Analyzing Stock Trends with Historical Data
To analyze a stock trend with historical data, pull a daily price history, then compare the current price with moving averages and with past highs and lows. A price above a rising 50-day or 200-day moving average points to an uptrend; a price below a falling average points to a downtrend. Past highs and lows mark likely resistance and support. In Excel, the MarketXLS add-in returns the price history and the indicators as formulas, so the analysis updates without manual downloads.
This article is educational and is not investment advice. Past price trends do not guarantee future results.
What historical data you need for trend analysis
Trend analysis starts with daily open, high, low, close, and volume (OHLCV) data for a period long enough to cover the indicator you use. A 200-day moving average needs at least 200 trading days of closes. Check that the data is adjusted for splits and dividends, because unadjusted prices create false breaks in the trend.
How volatility affects trend reading
Volatility is how far and how fast a price moves around its trend. In a volatile stock, short-term swings can look like trend changes when they are only noise. Longer lookback periods (50 or 200 days) filter out more noise, and a volatility measure such as =AverageTrueRange tells you how large a normal daily move is before you call a break.
How to analyze stock trends in Excel with MarketXLS
MarketXLS is an Excel add-in that adds stock data functions to your spreadsheet. For trend analysis:
- Pull the price history with
=QM_GetHistory("AAPL"). See historical stock data in Excel. - Add moving averages with
=SimpleMovingAverage("AAPL", 50)and=SimpleMovingAverage("AAPL", 200), or=ExponentialMovingAveragefor a faster-reacting line. - Compare the latest price from
=Last("AAPL")with each average to label the trend. - Add momentum with
=RSIor=MACDto see whether the trend is gaining or losing strength.
The full list of indicator functions is on the technical indicators page. On the Standard plan, stock quotes are 15-minute delayed; see pricing for plans with real-time data.
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