Fundamental analysis

Earnings Power Value Spreadsheet Using Marketxls

Written by admin
Thu Jun 01 2017
Earnings Power Value
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Earnings Power Value
 

While there are many methods to arrive at the intrinsic value of the stock for value investing, one approach is the Earnings Power Value, or EPV. A Columbia University Professor Bruce Greenwald developed this approach. In this article we will learn about the Earnings power Value method to value investing and we will also build an Earnings Power Value Spreadsheet using MarketXLS that you can use to check intrinsic value of any stock.

When it comes to stock markets, there are many approaches to investing and you should choose one that suits your beliefs and style. One such style of investing commonly referred to as value investing is a long-term investing approach where an investor aims to buy stocks that have a low market price compared to the fundamental value that the investor thinks the stock is worth. Since the investor thinks that the market price is lower than its fundamental value, te expects the price of the stock to rise and therefore buys the stock. This perceived difference between market price and intrinsic value of the stock is referred to as margin of safety. Generally, the discount should to be atleast 30-50% for investors interest in the stock.

Earnings Power Value

Earnings Power Value Formula

The formula for Earnings Power Value is based on the assumption that the current earnings of the firm are sustainable under a no growth scenario. EPV estimates the enterprise value by dividing an earnings measure with the weighted average cost of capital.

EPV = Adjusted Earnings / r

r is the cost of capital. We arrive at the adjusted earnings by adjusting the earnings for one time charges, depreciation, capital expenditures, taxation adjustments, and more adjustments based on the business cycle and other details. Finding the adjusted earnings can be difficult.

Let’s look at it in a bit more detail:

1. Adjusted Operating Earnings

We start with the adjusted operating earnings, i.e., EBIT. We take an average of adjusted operating earnings over the past 5-7 years. This is done to normalize the operating earnings in order to remove the effects of business cycles.

2. Deduct for Non-recurring Charges

We then deduct the long-term average of non-recurring charges from the normalized operating earnings.

3. Taxation Adjustment

We can either use an average tax rate of the company over the 5-7 year period or use the general corporate tax rate and apply it to the figure we get in step 2.

4. Depreciation Adjustment

We now add back the after-tax depreciation of the most recent year as it may not reflect the true economic cost of depreciation. Some analysts may deduct the entire depreciation while other may deduct only a percentage (such as 20%) of the depreciation value.

5. Subtract Maintenance Capital Expenditure

The next step is to deduct the maintenance capex which reflects the economic depreciation. We can calculate this by deducting growth capex from the capex in the cash flow statement. We calculate growth capex by taking an average of Gross Property Plant and Equipment (PPE)/ sales ratio over a long-term period and multiplying this by the current year’s increase in sales.

5. Adjusted After-tax EBIT

We now have the adjusted after-tax EBIT of the firm. We divide this by cost of capital to arrive at the earnings power value of the firm.

After deriving the EPV, we can compare it with the reproduction value. If the EPV is higher than the reproduction value, then the management is adding value and the firm is earning more that it’s cost of capital.

We can also compare EPV per share with the market price. If market price is below EPV per share, then the stock may be undervalued. For a fair comparison, we must first subtract any corporate debt from the EPV, and add back any cash in excess of operating requirements. This number is then divided by the number of shares to arrive at EPV per share.

Note that there are no hard rules for arriving at the EPV or reproduction value. What Greenwald provides is a method along with his recommendations of how to evaluate each item. Each analyst will come up with a different valuation based on their understanding of the financial statements and the business.

Earnings Power Value Spreadsheet (Example)

To demonstrate how we can calculate the Earnings Power Value, we have created a spreadsheet. This spreadsheet showcases the entire calculation using the Microsoft (MSFT) stock. It starts from the operating earnings and then make all the adjustments to calculate the EPV per share of the company. Users need to input some data in cells marked in Yellow. Furthermore, we can fetch some important data using the MarketXLS ‘hf’ functions. We have marked these cells in Green. As you can see in spreadsheet, the EPV per share of Microsoft stock is much lower than its market value. This indicates that the stock is overvalued. Note that EPV is an estimate and can differ based on an analyst’s interpretation of the adjusted earnings and cost of capital.

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Earnings Power Value

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AGFS
AGFS
AgroFresh Solutions Inc.
Basic Materials1.84-1.60%97 M-2.20-0.822.441.520.00%-7.54%
AGLE
AGLE
Aeglea BioTherapeutics Inc.
Healthcare0.49-1.58%25 M-0.30-1.268.500.3715.22%-89.64%
APTO
APTO
Aptose Biosciences Inc.
Healthcare0.82-1.57%77 M-1.40-0.633.130.71-4.43%-39.12%
AREC
AREC
American Resources Corporation
Basic Materials2.52-1.56%165 M-5.00-0.502.741.200.00%40.00%
ASPS
ASPS
Altisource Portfolio Solutions S.A.
Industrials11.21-1.49%180 M7.401.5814.588.07-4.60%-0.09%
AHPI
AHPI
Allied Healthcare Products Inc.
Healthcare2.10-1.41%9 M-5.40-0.4712.151.55-16.67%-63.92%
ATY
ATY
AcuityAds Holdings Inc
Information2.83-1.39%151 M36.700.078.691.657.60%-24.73%
ALKT
ALKT
Alkami Technology Inc
Information15.66-1.39%1,376 M-23.70-0.6532.509.234.89%-21.93%
ALTA
ALTA
Alterola Biotech Inc
Industrials44.16-1.25%834 M19.002.3645.2239.11
ASRV
ASRV
AmeriServ Financial Inc.
Financial Services3.98-1.24%67 M8.900.454.523.681.53%3.11%
ACU
ACU
Acme United Corporation.
Consumer Defensive28.23-1.16%96 M14.202.2641.9627.22-2.04%-16.23%
APT
APT
Alpha Pro Tech Ltd.
Basic Materials4.47-1.11%58 M17.000.288.643.76-5.89%-25.13%
ATLC
ATLC
Atlanticus Holdings Corporation
Financial Services37.33-1.09%573 M5.3010.3291.9830.58-7.02%-47.66%
AUBN
AUBN
Auburn National Bancorporation Inc.
Financial Services28.00-1.06%94 M12.502.1637.1125.823.32%-13.31%
AEYE
AEYE
AudioEye Inc.
Technology6.73-1.03%72 M-4.70-1.3413.483.106.66%-4.13%
AATC
AATC
Autoscope Technologies Corporation
Manufacturing4.97-1.00%27 M23.600.848.384.84-1.19%-20.99%
AA
AA
Alcoa Corporation
Basic Materials52.76-0.96%9,065 M9.505.2498.0936.618.45%-11.45%
AUMN
AUMN
Golden Minerals Company
Basic Materials0.33-0.94%53 M59.500.010.630.29-1.92%-6.41%
ATXI
ATXI
Avenue Therapeutics Inc.
Healthcare0.29-0.93%6 M-1.00-0.301.850.20-0.34%-68.17%
AEL
AEL
American Equity Investment Life Holding Company
Financial Services42.29-0.82%3,809 M4.907.4644.4927.1216.69%8.66%
ASC
ASC
Ardmore Shipping Corporation
Industrials9.60-0.72%346 M-291.30-0.039.833.079.84%184.02%
ARMP
ARMP
Armata Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Healthcare4.22-0.71%152 M-4.20-1.006.492.82-0.12%-22.99%
ATH
ATH
Athene Holding Ltd. Class A
Financial Services83.33-0.69%16,217 M4.5019.4491.2661.620.00%
ACER
ACER
Acer Therapeutics Inc.
Healthcare1.47-0.67%24 M-1.10-1.393.771.16-4.55%-35.53%
ALIM
ALIM
Alimera Sciences Inc.
Healthcare6.73-0.59%47 M-2.80-2.497.923.94-6.29%31.19%
ARR
ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc.
Real Estate7.59-0.52%877 M-6.20-1.2511.185.57-1.81%-22.63%
ATHN
ATHN
athenahealth Inc.
Technology9.59-0.52%314 M-41.2010.898.74
ATGE
ATGE
Adtalem Global Education Inc.
Consumer Defensive37.57-0.45%1,762 M6.006.5240.6019.14-2.42%27.10%
ARKR
ARKR
Ark Restaurants Corp.
Consumer Cyclical21.75-0.41%75 M6.003.6122.2014.392.98%29.27%
APA
APA
Apache Corporation
Energy34.70-0.40%10,671 M3.608.9251.9515.557.73%29.04%
ATIP
ATIP
ATI Physical Therapy Inc
Manufacturing0.95-0.38%217 M-0.20-5.564.630.91-18.66%-71.93%
AFIN
AFIN
American Finance Trust Inc.
Real Estate8.23-0.36%1,003 M-28.009.487.76-9.86%
ADXS
ADXS
Advaxis Inc.
Healthcare3.38-0.29%6 M-0.50-6.904.503.19-6.11%-12.21%
AMPE
AMPE
Ampio Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Healthcare0.10-0.29%22 M-1.00-0.101.830.09-4.51%-81.81%
ANGO
ANGO
AngioDynamics Inc.
Healthcare24.23-0.29%914 M-34.90-0.6832.0017.562.24%-12.15%
ABSI
ABSI
Absci Corp
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services4.78-0.21%362 M-3.70-1.4124.512.9323.51%-41.71%
ARVN
ARVN
Arvinas Inc.
Healthcare54.46-0.15%2,969 M-12.50-4.4698.6734.90-2.45%-33.70%
AFBI
AFBI
Affinity Bancshares Inc
Finance and Insurance14.63-0.14%97 M15.200.9918.0013.19-2.47%-5.00%
AR
AR
Antero Resources Corporation
Energy40.26-0.12%11,434 M12.103.0848.8010.9111.77%130.06%
ASTC
ASTC
Astrotech Corporation
Industrials0.48-0.10%24 M-8.10-0.161.210.42-1.07%-29.15%
AAWW
AAWW
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings
Industrials100.09-0.10%2,845 M6.9016.13101.6258.700.09%6.34%
ACBI
ACBI
Atlantic Capital Bancshares Inc.
Financial Services32.34-0.09%647 M13.402.3833.6822.1412.41%
ALSN
ALSN
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc.
Consumer Cyclical38.77-0.08%3,608 M8.204.6342.0032.552.24%6.66%
AMED
AMED
Amedisys Inc
Healthcare122.36-0.07%3,876 M28.704.30188.88101.61-0.71%-24.41%
AAC
AAC
AAC Holdings Inc.
Healthcare9.880.00%1,235 M91.800.119.909.660.00%1.44%
AAIC
AAIC
Arlington Asset Investment Corp
Finance and Insurance3.390.00%100 M-11.00-0.294.042.882.73%-3.14%
ACC
ACC
American Campus Communities Inc
Real Estate65.420.00%9,125 M130.700.5165.4648.010.08%14.19%
ACIW
ACIW
ACI Worldwide Inc.
Technology26.130.00%2,949 M19.901.3136.0123.630.81%-24.70%
ACRS
ACRS
Aclaris Therapeutics Inc.
Healthcare16.800.00%1,177 M-13.40-1.3419.979.26-6.67%15.54%
AESE
AESE
Allied Esports Entertainment Inc
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation1.570.00%61 M1.001.562.501.201.30%-8.19%
AFIB
AFIB
Acutus Medical Inc.
Manufacturing1.660.00%43 M-0.30-4.5013.800.487.79%-51.32%
AGM.A
AGM.A
AGM.A
110.370.00%1,155 M9.6011.21124.3787.502.95%-8.02%
AKU
AKU
Akumin Inc
Health Care and Social Assistance0.770.00%60 M-0.80-0.872.870.4617.50%-56.00%
AMTBB
AMTBB
Amerant Bancorp Inc. Class B Common Stock
Financial Services28.720.00%1,090 M19.401.4829.0519.50
AMTI
AMTI
Applied Molecular Transport Inc.
Manufacturing1.960.00%71 M-0.50-3.4933.281.714.26%-85.98%
ANAT
ANAT
American National Insurance Company
Financial Services190.020.00%5,109 M8.0023.74195.89187.100.00%0.62%
ANGN
ANGN
Angion Biomedica Corp
Manufacturing1.030.00%31 M-1.00-1.0113.660.98-1.90%-64.48%
ARDS
ARDS
Aridis Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Healthcare2.310.00%39 M-0.70-3.794.340.880.87%-0.86%
ARNA
ARNA
Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Healthcare99.990.00%6,165 M-9.90-9.69100.0045.507.59%
ASRT
ASRT
Assertio Therapeutics Inc.
Healthcare3.800.00%174 M52.100.064.440.854.11%74.31%
ATRS
ATRS
Antares Pharma Inc.
Healthcare5.590.00%955 M25.300.245.603.110.00%56.58%
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Top MarketXLS Rank stocks

Dillard's Inc. logo

Dillard's Inc.

301.60
 
USD
 
8.85
 
(3.02%)
85
Rank
Optionable: Yes
Market Cap: 4,185 M
Industry: Department Stores
52 week range    
167.03   
   416.71
Preformed Line Products Company logo

Preformed Line Products Company

76.92
 
USD
 
3.57
 
(4.87%)
82
Rank
Optionable: No
Market Cap: 333 M
Industry: Electronic Components
52 week range    
54.97   
   78.40
The First of Long Island Corporation logo

The First of Long Island Corporation

19.97
 
USD
 
0.23
 
(1.17%)
82
Rank
Optionable: Yes
Market Cap: 445 M
Industry: Banks - Regional - US
52 week range    
16.51   
   22.95
Republic Services Inc. logo

Republic Services Inc.

144.71
 
USD
 
2.91
 
(2.05%)
81
Rank
Optionable: Yes
Market Cap: 45,122 M
Industry: Waste Management
52 week range    
113.57   
   145.98
Marine Products Corporation logo

Marine Products Corporation

11.70
 
USD
 
0.46
 
(4.09%)
81
Rank
Optionable: Yes
Market Cap: 383 M
Industry: Recreational Vehicles
52 week range    
8.32   
   14.79
LTC Properties Inc. logo

LTC Properties Inc.

44.41
 
USD
 
0.93
 
(2.14%)
81
Rank
Optionable: Yes
Market Cap: 1,760 M
Industry: REIT - Healthcare Facilities
52 week range    
31.36   
   44.52
ICF International Inc. logo

ICF International Inc.

104.26
 
USD
 
2.94
 
(2.90%)
81
Rank
Optionable: Yes
Market Cap: 1,888 M
Industry: Business Services
52 week range    
84.68   
   108.23
Dick's Sporting Goods Inc logo

Dick's Sporting Goods Inc

107.24
 
USD
 
2.13
 
(2.03%)
81
Rank
Optionable: Yes
Market Cap: 7,900 M
Industry: Specialty Retail
52 week range    
63.45   
   147.39
Designer Brands Inc. Class A logo

Designer Brands Inc. Class A

18.21
 
USD
 
-0.28
 
(-1.51%)
81
Rank
Optionable: Yes
Market Cap: 1,143 M
Industry: Apparel Stores
52 week range    
11.24   
   18.49
Snap-On Incorporated logo

Snap-On Incorporated

231.36
 
USD
 
2.62
 
(1.15%)
80
Rank
Optionable: Yes
Market Cap: 11,797 M
Industry: Tools & Accessories
52 week range    
190.08   
   235.36

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